Buy vs. Stay Invested + Rent — Interactive Model

Data as of July 9, 2026. Adjust any input below — everything recalculates live. Not tax or legal advice; verify with your CPA/advisor before acting.

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Valuation check: Zestimate $1,912,900 (range $1.82M–$2.01M) brackets the $1,999,000 ask. Unit A next door (1,600 sqft, sold $1.45M in 2021) now Zestimates at $1,411/sqft — well above Unit B's $866/sqft ask. East Vail averages ~$1,150–$1,260/sqft per local market data. On a per-sqft basis this listing looks reasonably priced.

Break-even estimator — peak-period nights

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Rates sized for the main/upper STR portion only (3 bed/3 bath, ~1,400 sqft) in East Vail — a value-tier location 10 min from Vail Village, not ski-in/ski-out core. Winter holiday rates below are informed by actual Airbnb comps you pulled (Vail-area 3BR, Dec holiday week and March/spring-break week listings), adjusted down from the Vail Village/Lionshead luxury end of that range to match East Vail's tier. Summer and off-peak nights are still directional placeholders. Get an actual comp set from a local property manager (AirDNA / Key Data / PriceLabs) before relying on this for a purchase decision.

Christmas/NYE nights 12

Christmas/NYE ADR $1,400

Presidents' wknd nights 4

Presidents' wknd ADR $1,100

MLK wknd nights 3

MLK wknd ADR $900

Spring break nights 8

Spring break ADR $1,050

Summer (Jun–Aug) nights 25

Summer (Jun–Aug) ADR $450

Peak STR nights/gross

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+ LTR (lower unit)

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Est. NOI (peaks + LTR)

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vs. annual mortgage P&I

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Scenario presets

Deal terms

Purchase price $1,999,000

Down payment 20%

Mortgage rate 7.25%

Interest-only loanno principal paydown for first 10 yrs, at the rate set above

Rental performance (Year 1)

STR gross revenue (main/upper) $200,000

STR nights rented/year 135

STR management/cleaning fee 30%

LTR gross (lower unit) $28,500

Property tax/yr $7,100

Insurance/yr $9,000

Utilities/yr $8,000

Capex reserve 1.5%

Personal use & §280A

Personal-use days/year 30

Tax & depreciation

Material participation achieved100+ hrs, more than any other individual — documented

Cost segregation studyreclass building basis into 5/7/15-yr, 100% bonus Yr 1

Cost-seg reclass % of building basis 25%

QBI deduction (§199A)20% of qualifying net income — only when non-passive & §280A clear

Marginal tax rate, fed + CO 35.0%

Show after-tax cash flow in chartreinvest after-tax CF instead of pre-tax

Appreciation & alternative

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Verified Eagle County history (FHFA All-Transactions HPI): 10-yr (2015–2025) +123% (8.36%/yr). 5-yr (2020–2025) +66% (10.68%/yr). 20-yr (2005–2025) +139% (4.45%/yr). Pre-COVID long run (2000–2019, 19yr): +79% (3.12%/yr), the most representative "normal market" baseline. The 2020–2022 COVID spike alone ran +34% in 2 years (15.6%/yr); the 2008–2012 crash was -34% peak to trough (-9.96%/yr); most recent print (2024→2025) was -1.3%, consistent with the market-cooling/rising-inventory reports out of Vail right now. This is a boom-bust market, not a steady compounder. The Expected default (4%/yr) is anchored near the pre-COVID long-run trend, not the anomalous last 5-10 years. Slider widened to 10% so you can stress-test a "boom continues" case, and down to -6% for a GFC-style bust, both real, historically-observed outcomes for this county.

Home appreciation/yr 4.0%

Market alt. return/yr 8.0%

Winter rent, $/month $6,000

Months rented/year 6

Exit / sale analysis

Exit year 10

Selling costs 7%

Blended recapture rate on depreciation taken 28%

Wealth comparison over time

Year 5 — Buy (Option A)

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Year 5 — Rent + Invest (Option B)

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Year 10 — Buy (Option A)

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Year 10 — Rent + Invest (Option B)

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Year 5 advantage

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Year 10 advantage

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Year-by-year detail

Year	Gross	Cash opex	Interest	Depreciation	Taxable inc/(loss)	Tax impact	Pre-tax CF	After-tax CF	Loan bal.	Home value	Equity	Option A wealth	Option B wealth

Assumptions Closing costs 1.5% of price. Fixed opex growth 3%/yr, rent growth 3%/yr. Land/building split 33.9%/66.1% (Eagle County assessor). STR license confirmed available for this address (per Sarah, Jul 2026); Town of Vail is separately discussing a 2-year-ownership rule for future STR licenses — not yet enacted.
Interest-only option When toggled on, models no principal paydown at the rate set on the Mortgage rate slider, for the full projection window shown (not just the real 10-yr IO term), on the assumption you exit before the note reamortizes or balloons. See the on-screen note if exit year is pushed past year 10.
§280A Personal use flagged if it exceeds the greater of 14 days or 10% of STR nights rented. Trapped = rental deductions capped at rental income, no loss shelters outside income (LTR unit is always passive under §469 regardless).
Non-passive path Requires §280A clear AND documented material participation (100+ hrs, more than any other individual incl. management staff). Loss then offsets ordinary income and capital gains (e.g. an INFQ sale) in the same year, subject to the §461(l) excess business loss cap — $256,000 for Head of Household in 2026 (OBBBA reset thresholds down from 2025 levels). Excess carries forward as an NOL, not a current-year offset.
Self-employment tax Not modeled — generally does not apply to Schedule E STR income (cleaning between stays only, no daily housekeeping/concierge). Only applies with hotel-like "substantial services" (§1402), a different test than the one that makes the activity non-passive for loss purposes (§469). Confirm your actual service level with your CPA.
QBI Simplified 20% of positive qualifying net income when non-passive & §280A-clear — does not model W-2 wage/UBIA phase-outs at higher income. Real estate professional (REP) status is not modeled as a lever here: it requires real property trades to be more than half your total working time, which isn't realistic alongside the Christy Sports/QuEra consulting load.
Exit analysis Applies selling costs and a blended recapture rate (ordinary-income recapture on accelerated 5/7/15-yr components + 25% unrecaptured §1250 gain on straight-line) against cumulative depreciation taken through the exit year — a simplification, not a substitute for an actual basis/gain calculation at sale.
Tax-rate mechanics are simplified to one marginal rate. In reality an ordinary loss reduces ordinary income first; because capital gains stack on top of ordinary income, the real benefit against a specific LTCG (like INFQ) depends on exact bracket-stacking — have your CPA model your actual return. See notes/vail-black-gore-dr-analysis-2026-07-09.md for the full narrative writeup. Not tax or legal advice; verify with your CPA/advisor before acting.

Recommendation

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20% down, interest-only at 6% beats higher-down-payment and fully-amortizing alternatives on both counts that matter: it wins on Year 10 wealth (capital-constant basis, the 6% cost of carry sits well below the 8%/yr market-return assumption, so leverage helps), and it meaningfully improves the worst-case cash burn versus 20% down amortizing (Year 1 shortfall in the worst-case scenario narrows from about -$50K to about -$31K), without tying up an extra ~$400K of capital the way 40-50% down would. Two caveats: confirm a true 6% IO product is actually available for this property (IO on a second-home/STR-hybrid often prices at a premium over a conventional fixed-rate loan, not a discount), and remember the wealth edge depends on the 8%/yr market-return assumption holding up, not a guarantee. Verify with your CPA/mortgage broker before acting.